This is a continuation.

As we discussed yesterday, the situation in the middle east is a tower of sticks. Each action that we take and each action that Al Quaeda takes, pulls out one of the sticks, bringing the situation closer to the tower falling.

If the tower falls we could find ourselves in a simultaneous battle with most of the Muslim world, armed with nuclear and biological weapons, which is what Bin Laden wants and what Colin Powell is trying to avoid. This has been clear to me from the start. What is not clear is if being at war with the entire Muslim world is a fundamentally bad thing.

Wars are bad. "War is hell" in the words of William Tecumseh Sherman. And mitigating and reducing wars is, by and large, a good thing. But this war has already consumed more civilian casualties to the United States than WWII, Korea and Vietnam combined. We constantly say "we are not at war with Islam" but day by day it becomes more and more apparent that the majority of Islam is at war with us. They're having a jihad and we are going to be the other side, whether we like it or not. At some point, this war is bound to get worse. And we, as a nation, as a military, are fundamentally unprepared for a big war. The question is, "should we prepare to kick the tower down?"

Since September 11th the point has been made over and over that we're fighting this war with one hand behind our back. One of the reasons for that, clearly, is that we don't have the force level to handle the fallout from fighting it "full up." Afghanistan alone would take fifteen to twenty divisions, two to three times what we have right now. Add in conquering Iraq , a nuclear war with Pakistan and "adjusting" Saudi Arabia (all things that may have to happen in a worst case scenario), and the force level necessary would dwarf anything since WWII.

Because of that, we are attempting to finesse our way through this war, using the Northern Alliance as our "proxy barbarians" and placating a variety of countries that are in reality more our enemy than our friends. (Indeed, there are only two countries in the middle east that have had spontaneous public expressions of sympathy for the United States , Israel , who we are back-stabbing on a daily basis, and Iran , a nominal "enemy.") And our leadership clearly hopes that "other countries" can be dealt with serially, that is "we'll get to Iraq after we're done with Afghanistan ." The problem with that is that your enemies make plans too. And they're not going to give you infinite time to work out your wars.

Since the downside to any of our current operations going "wrong" is real strategic threats ( Iraq getting us with a hellbug, Saudi Arabia going fully mujaheddin and cutting off our oil, nuclear war with Pakistan ) prudence would suggest preparing for those eventualities. However, if we were doing so (buying oil when the price was low and pumping it back into American wells, starting drilling in the ANWR on a "hero" basis, building up our forces in preparation for having to fight the entire Arab world) it would be evident. And it's not. The Army is tinkering with its force structure, not increasing it. And the "tinkering" that they are doing is based upon Low Intensity Conflict. Which is a very optimistic view of the future. Low intensity conflict is fighting a guerrilla war in Afghanistan for the next twenty years. High intensity conflict is taking Karachi by force.

In war, planning for "best case scenarios" has invariably meant getting your butt ripped wide open. Indeed, it was the blinkered "best case scenario" thinking that led us down the garden path to September 11th. We need to start planning for worst case scenarios right now. We need to start legislation to increase the military, increase the strategic oil reserve, drill ANWR and the coasts and generally "stock up the wood-pile" for a long and cold winter. There's a fine line between paranoia and prudence. We're well over into the "prudence" side on this. September 11th and "Daschle Grade Anthrax" are clear proofs.

We need to start getting ready for a real war. Because if the tower doesn't fall, all it will cost us is money. But if the tower does fall, it will cost us our lives.